Steve's Blog (for Jobseekers & those hiring)

Hi folks.  I know this post has been a while in coming.  Honestly, I was holding off putting this up as trends seem to shift a bit, and I was not feeling right about all of the content.  Now on to the post:

There is much speculation on what companies will be hiring in 2009 and 2010 and what jobs will be available.  Like others, I have my opinions on where the growth will be and where folks will likely find work.  My focus is on areas of expertise that I see as necessary, timely, and relevant to current economic conditions and priorities (in the US and abroad).  My goal is to analyze current/future market conditions, assess opportunities for needed expertise and provide empirical data to back up my claims.  My premise is simple: focus on where the money is and will be.

Before I move on to the detail, it occurred to me that not all of us have the time to review the entire article and would prefer something easier to digest.  In the interest of expediency, I modified this post to include a short list of each growth area here:

Short List

Scenario # 1: Career counseling/job search related professions
Scenario # 2: Workers in and supporting retail food service and grocery chains industry
Scenario # 3: Governmental positions (emphasis on technical and regulatory / oversight positions)
Scenario # 4: Green-Energy related jobs
Scenario # 5: Stem-Cell research-related jobs
Scenario # 6: Health care jobs
Scenario # 7: College-related and Education jobs
Scenario # 8: Law-enforcement related jobs
Scenario # 9: SAAS (Software-As-A-Service) -related Jobs
Scenario # 10: Jobs in Entertainment and supporting Industries

Scenario # 1:  Career counseling/job search related professions

Background:

Per a Department Of Labor official, the United States Unemployment Rate for March is at 8.5% (the highest in 25 years) (see the Denver Business Journal 4/03/09 article Labor Department official analyzes unemployment numbers).  As it is, unemployment numbers not only include the numerous folks that were already unemployed from the existing economic conditions, but a whole new host of people that are jobless and actively looking for assistance.

Analysis:

Per the aftermath of our country’s unwieldy financial situation and the recession that we are in (just as other countries are dealing with), the jobless will need support in obtaining public assistance, finding work, re-training and re-tooling for needed skillsets, etc.    Overwhelming numbers of people are looking for assistance and insight on how to manage their job searches, need counseling and coaching for what to do in between jobs and help to market themselves to be hired elsewhere.  Both private and public organizations will be hiring for expertise, both from a training and counseling aspect, as well as from services to the unemployed to source for work.

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Career coaches, counselors, job search consultants, training specialists

Scenario # 2: Workers in and supporting retail food service and grocery chains industry

Background:

With the economic downturn, the priority for most will be to save money by cooking at home or looking for bargains or deals on food.  Businesses in this space include selling consumable food, retail chains selling inexpensive cooked meals, and suppliers of cooking utensils and other supporting elements (not the high-end wares that boutique stores like Crate & Barrel or others sell, but items from places like Target or Wal-Mart).   For more insight, read the Reuters article Signs of the Times: Bad economy good for noodles.

Analysis:

I see growth in jobs for sale and shipment of food and food-related items (clerks, baggers, managerial staff, warehousing staff and drivers).  Cost-cutting and cost-management will be key here, though, so many positions will most likely be part-time or limited in salary.  Luckily, many in-store and warehousing positions for chains like Safeway and Lucky’s are unionized, therefore wages negotiated at competitive levels.  For more senior positions such as department heads, store managers, and regional/area managers, the emphasis will be on strict cost control/management skills, and being able to stretch budgets to deal with tight $ constraints.  Providing the highest levels of customer service and support will still be vital for these positions.

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Clerks, baggers, checkers, warehouse staff, drivers, and retail managers.  Needed experience includes unionized environments, retail,  customer support and service, driving/warehouse skills.  For managers, they also need strong skills in conflict resolution, retail management skills, leading and motivating employees in unionized positions with high-turnover and attrition.

Scenario # 3: Governmental positions (emphasis on technical and regulatory / oversight positions)

Background:

Currently, the national priority is to provide stimulus funding for re-building the nation’s infrastructure, fuel efficiency, energy independence, and stimulating various industries from stem-cell research to the automotive industries to financial institutions and others.  This leads to increased regulation of any and all companies and industries receiving federal stimulus funds, with corresponding increases in funding to regulatory agencies and upgrading of their technology.

Analysis:

I see slim growth in governmental hiring (mainly federal administrative and some technical jobs (operational planning and IT support)).  Unfortunately, due to its unique budgetary status, California will most likely show net job losses for an undetermined timeframe (on the order of a couple of years, except for jobs having to do with building of infrastructure and key areas of green energy and stem-cell research).  All in all, though, federal jobs will carefully increase with the projected surge in government spending.   I refer to an article from Infoworld’s Tom Sullivan on How 2009 Compares to the Dot-Com Bust and Prior Times regarding the conflict on trends for government IT spending.

In order to manage such activity as increased infrastructure spending, stimulus funding increases and heavier regulation, I project increased government headcount and added bureaucracy.   Hopefully,  this will be balanced with  “smart” hiring practices with strong emphasis on positions technical in scope.

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Technical positions (IT specialists, project managers with emphasis on controlling costs and increasing efficiency).  Planners and architects for “shovel-ready” projects that had been on hold up until the release of stimulus funding.  Audit and investigative staff.

Scenario # 4: Green-Energy related jobs

Background:

Another of the national priorities for our current president is to foster and grow technologies that lessen our nation’s dependence on foreign oil.  Considering this, our country has invested a portion of stimulus funding and future plans towards “green-energy” and “clean-tech” industries.  Jobs in this area are related to manufacturing and sale of solar energy arrays, wind power, bio-diesel, and other alternative energy sources.  There will also be growth in supporting technologies, such as insulation, sealant for homes against “infiltration” (thermodynamic air currents affecting temperature shifts inside homes), biodegradeable and sustainable building materials that are lower-cost and help to minimize our carbon footprint on the planet.

Analysis:

Again, the priority for green and clean technology opens up manufacturing jobs within the US.  According to President Obama, this is not something we can easily outsource or offshore to foreign countries.

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Traditional manufacturing roles and positions, including technicans, engineers, scientists and developers.  Helpful expertise will be those with training in “green”, sustainable technologies (solar, bio-diesel, wind-power, water-reclamation, hydro-dynamic power, etc.)

Scenario # 5: Stem-Cell research-related jobs

Background:

The direction of stimulus money and the president’s recent lifting of the stem-cell research ban seem to support substantial growth in this sector.  Long-term ramifications of this research will lead to advances in medical advancement to further combat disease and infirmity.  Clinical research and medical positions along with jobs realted to management of information and trend analysis witll show signs of growth.

Analysis:

I project  job growth  as long as the funding lasts.  As with any research-related industry at the on-set of it’s development (AIDS, Cancer, green-energy, etc.), jobs will come both from the technical delivery of the research methodology as well as the supporting administration (operational support).

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Research analysts, fellows, scientists, testing staff, grant-writers, database administrators, clinicians, data entry personnel.

Scenario # 6: Health care jobs

Background:

Following the trend in personal cost-cutting, controlled government spending and investment in infrastructure and research, health care will see some mild growth.  As the population of the United States slowly grows (either through immigration and live-births or through medical advances further extending our lives), there will be further advances in pharmaceutical- and drug-related therapies to maintain and extend our lives.

Analysis:

Current articles relate that even the Health Care industry has been affected by the recession with many hospitals freezing salaries and minimizing or limited hiring.  However, I tend to agree with the conclusion reached in April 12th Wall Street Journal article: Recession Now Hits Jobs in Health Care By Avery Johnson and Kelly Evans, wherein they state that:

The decline, while unusual, is still likely to be a temporary break in the industry pattern. Growth in health-care spending, and thus employment in the sector, is likely to rebound when the recession ends, a function of the enormous advances in medical technology and Americans’ strong appetite for health care. President Barack Obama has also named the sector one of his three pillars of the future U.S. economy, alongside energy and education. Health expenditures as a share of gross domestic product have more than tripled in the past 50 years to about 16% today, and the government’s Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services say that figure is likely to hit 20% within a decade.

“It’s a long-term shift reflecting changes in technology and what consumers want,” says Robert Fogel, a Nobel laureate and professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. “Health care is the growth industry of the 21st century.”

What I project is mild job growth to coincide with the national priority to overhaul the health care and insurance industries.  The push as with all other industries will be to curb or contain costs, which may lead to to a decline in individual wages.  I project that with the lifting of the recession and the investment by the government into health care spending, we should see ever-increasing job creation.

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Typical jobs include health and aid workers: doctors, nurses, clinicians, pharmacists, technicians, and other health-related professions.  Other jobs will include project managers, administrative staff, technical support staff, etc.

Scenario # 7: College-related and Education jobs

Background:

Now before my CA-based colleagues jump on my back for how sad a state our education happens to be, what with the massive layoffs and cost-cutting, please just hear me out.  My projection is that there will be some growth in jobs in education and education-supporting fields, that seems to coincide both with the education Pillar of President Obama’s administration, and with the trends listed above in healthcare and related research spending.

Analysis:

My projection is that colleges and universities seem to weather these downturns somewhat better than other industries.  While hunting for the next job, many return to school for additional skills training, updates to education they already have, or to complete unfinished degrees or obtain needed certifications.  (See Judy Keen’s USA Today 4/08/2009 Article: “After layoffs, many workers go back to school“). Added influxes of students means larger class sizes, and the possibility for added facility space and resources.  Granted many universities and colleges are strained for resources, however the hope is that additional federal funding will be made available to keep up with demand.  In addition, as these institutions grow, so do the supporting services and businesses that cater to this demographic (from restaurants to supply stores and shops to movie theaters and entertainment venues).

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Supporting positions for the university from faculty, administration to counselors and support staff (custodial, janitorial, maintenance).  I recommend focusing on those educational centers that are positioned for growth industries (solar & green tech, health care, biotech, stem-cell research, etc.).  Also look into jobs for supporting business, from retail food to health services to entertainment.

Scenario # 8: Law-enforcement related jobs

Background:

While there is a push and priority to control federal spending, fears of rising crime during tight economic times have fueled increases in stimulus funding to law-enforcement agencies across the US and investment in certain of our security related capabilities overseas.  On the global front, the recent increase in piracy has prompted the US to carefully plan with regard to how we as a nation marshal our efforts to protect sea-faring transport of our goods, as well as how we coordinate our security measures with other nations to help protect our interests in international waters.

Per the 4/20/2009 press release: The United States and the 2009 Summit of the Americas: Securing Our Citizens’ Future , outlined on http://www.enewspf.com/, President Obama has illustrated our nation’s willingness and efforts to work with other countries to safeguard our nation’s interests and those of our neighbors throughout Latin America.

Analysis:

In a large picture view, many threats to safety and security of our citizens both domestically and abroad represent the modernizing of tactics by criminals.  Granted, piracy on the high seas seems like tactics for the 18th century, not the 21st, even these pirates use sophisticated methods to locate and gather intelligence on potential victims.  They now use automatic weapons and hackers to bypass security measures, all accomplish their ends.  Here in the states, crime takes on many forms (from straight-forward kidnapping, assault, theft, rape, and/or murder, to cyber-based, denial-of-service attacks on computer systems for theft or vandalism).  However, criminals again are becoming more sophisticated, sometimes coordinating their attacks from thousands of miles away or even in other countries.  What’s needed is both additional soldiers on the ground to fight these threats in person, as well as the latest technology and tactics to counter-act these threats. Add to this the increasing number of retiring officers and administrative personnel.

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Police officers; dispatchers; cyber-techs and computer programmers  (with expertise to locate criminals, to implement newer software, systems and technology); Training staff to update skills and tactics;

Scenario # 9: SAAS (Software-As-A-Service) -related Jobs

Background:

In these harsh economic times, many surviving companies are looking to trim costs anywhere they can.  One way to do this is to migrate away from costly software solutions in favor of outsourced offerings from vendors with “hosted applications. ”  With these subscription-based Software-As-A-Service (SAAS) vendors, the premise is simple: clients decrease overhead by eliminating  costly installations on their own servers, doing away with upgrades, enhancements, tweaking, service calls, application training, and support.  SAAS offers the flexibility of ease-of-use (they are typically built to run on top of existing web browsers), upgrades and tweaking are done on the vendor’s systems, are scalable (can be ramped up or decreased per the client’s needs), and when the need goes away, so does the access.  Hand-in-hand with this is the prevalence of “Cloud Computing” wherein software is shared amongst many computers within a network (either private or public).

Analysis:

As with any service/product environment where clients and sales revenue must be obtained, there is opportunity for assertive sales people to succeed.  Here with the decline of traditional software offering, there has been an upsurge in grown and demand for SAAS.  As an example, read this article on F-Secure: Solid Growth And Strong Profitability Continued, detailing their successes and track record for the last fiscal year FY2008.

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Business Development positions from sales managers, account executives, and sales engineers.  Also some growth in technical positions leveraging these technologies (XML, HTML, Java developers, PHP, Ruby On Rails, Ajax, Flash, etc.)

Scenario # 10: Jobs in Entertainment and supporting Industries

Background:

The last area I want to focus for this article is on the Entertainment industry.  The premise for growth here goes back to where the money is.  The idea is in tight, economic times, when people can’t afford lavish trips or huge purchases, what are they spending money on (I tried to stay away from the Adult Entertainment industry, which I will address in another article).

For many, the emphasis will be on spending on simple conveniences such as low to mid-range TV’s and other media equipment.  Gone will be the large scale HDTV purchases, unless the prices are slashed extensively.  What then to watch on my TV while at home?  Either rental movies, streamed entertainment from the web, or direct feed cable or DirectTV.  This also coincides with the upcoming conversion of analog to digital signals for all programming.  Also keep in mind that (unless your home was built within the last 5-10 years) existing cable lines that most folks have in their homes have been corroded and will need replacing.  There is also a trend of convergence of like technologies being offered by these companies (bundling of high-speed internet with cable with Voice-Over-IP, with cellular phone service).

Analysis:

What does this mean for the job market?  I project some meager growth for industries and occupations that support media and entertainment (from companies such as Comcast, NetFlix, DirectTV and others).  Both on the technical side and the sales/business development side.

Jobs/Expertise needed:

Again, technical (hardware, software programmers, installers); support staff; sales and business development staff, especially with expertise in telecommunications, high-speed internet, and VOIP.

Last Word:

My advice for those jobseekers reading this, please consider your job search options carefully.  Assess where you are at and what relevant skills and experience you can offer.  Articulate what value you can bring to a prospective employer.  Be ready to identify in real-world $’s and cents (that make sense) how you have been able to create success and how you will build value for your next job.   Identify gaps for yourself as far as experience or skills, and plan for how to overcome these gaps (training, etc.).

If you have any additional input, or if there are other industries that you see growth in, please let me know.  I will be revising this post soon, as more information becomes available.